Voor veel waarnemers kwam de uitslag van de verkiezingen op St. Eustatius van 21 oktober jl. als een onprettige verrassing. Na het wegsturen van de coalitie van de Progressive Labor Party (PLP) en onafhankelijk raadslid Merkman in februari 2018, de aanstelling van direct door Den Haag benoemde bestuurders, aanzienlijke investeringen in infrastructuur en investeringen in de kwaliteit van het publieke apparaat, was de verwachting bepaald niet dat de eilandbewoners opnieuw voor precies dezelfde, eerder weggestuurde, eilandsraadsleden zouden kiezen. Toch gebeurde het.
Toen ik in mei van dit jaar, met mijn adviesbureau, de resultaten presenteerde van een door ons kantoor uitgevoerde Political Poll, werd de uitslag daarvan door velen als ongeloofwaardig weggelachen. De groep geënquêteerden (113) zou te klein zijn geweest en de uitslagen -volgens de criticasters- geenszins representatief. Toch voorspelde de enquête, naar nu geconstateerd mag worden, feilloos de winst van de PLP én de overwinning van Clyde van Putten als grootste stemmentrekker.
Naar mijn mening zijn er ruwweg 5 redenen zijn waarom de PLP de winnaar is geworden van de verkiezingen:
1. Van Putten zegt wat veel Statianen denken en voelen.
De Statianen zijn een trots en weerbarstig volk. Zo stemde in april 2005 ruim driekwart van de Statiaanse kiezers vóór het behoud van het Land Nederlandse Antillen. Dit nadat alle andere eilanden, met eigen referenda, al hadden aangegeven de constellatie te zullen verlaten. De Statianen zijn er, al vanaf de tijd van de Nederlandse Antillen, aan gewend door anderen niet voor vol te worden aangezien. Er leeft bij veel Statianen een verongelijktheid over hoe het eiland door andere partijen -inclusief Nederland- altijd is behandeld. Van Putten voelt dit feilloos aan en verwoordt hardop wat velen denken of voelen.
2. De PLP-lijst bracht dit keer diverse stromingen samen
In de verkiezingen van 2015 deden niet minder dan 7 partijen mee, hetgeen leidde tot een versplintering van het resultaat. Door het weglopen van Reuben Merkman bij de UPC, met medeneming van zijn zetel, was er met de PLP/Merkman combinatie sprake van een verbond waar de meerderheid van de stemmers -al was het indirect- toch achter stond. Bij verkiezingen van dit jaar deed de PLP met een lijst waarop niet alleen dezelfde Merkman stond, maar ook nog Glen Schmidt, die bij de vorige verkiezingen met zijn ‘Blanco Lijst’ toch ook de nodige stemmen wist te vergaren. De aanwezigheid van Merkman en Schmidt hebben verschillende meer ‘pro-autonomie’ stromingen op het eiland geconsolideerd in de PLP. Een naar nu blijkt briljante strategie, die heeft opgeleverd wat de PLP hoopte.
3. Een meerderheid stond niet achter de Haagse ingreep
Hoewel veel Statianen ook wel vraagtekens hadden over het beleid van het betuurscollege onder indirecte aansturing van Van Putten, waren eigenlijk zowel vriend als vijand geschokt over het compleet naar huis sturen van een democratisch gekozen volksvertegenwoordiging en eilandsbestuur. De ondoorzichtige en ogenschijnlijk willekeurig bijeengeroepen Social Advisory Council, zonder enige bevoegdheid of formele opdracht, vergrootte de al aanwezige scepsis over de legitimiteit van het interim-bestuur. In het hierboven aangehaalde opinieonderzoek gaf 54% van de respondenten aan het niet eens te zijn met de interventie door Den Haag in het gekozen bestuur.
4. De DP is bij velen niet geliefd
De Democratische Partij (DP) is, ondanks een goede interne organisatie, een doorgaans consistente en vrij zakelijke aanpak, niet geliefd bij de grootste groep Statianen. De partij wordt door velen gezien als een soort ‘Grand Old Party’ waarvan de exponenten jarenlang goed voor zichzelf zorgden, maar minder goed voor het eiland of de gewone man. Daarnaast wordt de partij gezien als instigator achter het Nederlands bestuurlijk ingrijpen. Een stem op de DP was daardoor voor velen nu niet logisch, terwijl de driekoppige UPC niet werd gezien als een volwaardig of levensvatbaar alternatief.
5. Veel Statianen wantrouwen de intenties van Nederland
In de genoemde enquête gaf 56% van de respondenten aan te betwijfelen of het Nederlandse Kabinet wel écht het beste met het eiland voorhad. Dit wantrouwen werd niet weggenomen door de gepleegde investeringen of de ogenschijnlijke ‘plotselinge vooruitgang’ na de Nederlandse interventie. Veel mensen op het eiland snappen niet dat lokale bestuur al die jaren sinds 10/10/10 niet die financiële middelen kreeg die het nodig had om haar zaken behoorlijk te regelen en de broodnodige investeringen in infrastructuur te doen. De ‘gulheid’ van Nederland werd door velen gezien als een wijze waarop Den Haag nu de harten van de bevolking wilde winnen, hoewel het diezelfde bevolking genoemde verbeteringen eerder onthield.
Betekent dit alles nu, zoals Ronald van Raak elders in dit medium suggereert, dat de meerderheid van de Statianen pro onafhankelijkheid is? Ik durf dit te betwijfelen. Naar mijn idee was het meer een stem ‘pro Democratie’ en ‘anti-ingreep’.
Van de PLP mag, na alles wat is gebeurd, wellicht een nieuwe en andere benadering worden verwacht. Maar dat betekent óók dat Nederland, opnieuw democratisch gekozen vertegenwoordigers een nieuwe kans zal moeten geven. Bovenal moet het beeld worden voorkomen, dat Nederland de bevolking van St. Eustatius ‘straft’ omdat zij heeft gestemd heeft, zoals zij heeft gestemd.
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